Unity

Georgia 008.jpg
Originally uploaded by Flasher T

From the support demonstration in Tartu this afternoon.

Local News

Estonians are buying up Georgian wines in a show of support. Best thing you can do, really - guaranteed to benefit the Georgian nation rather than any political movement, so it is good irrespective of any doubts you might have as to who caused what. In conflicts such as South Ossetia, no side is ever completely innocent. I recommend the Akhasheni Marani, should be available in Selvers - a very good semi-sweet red.

Parliament is about to go into an emergency session to draft a joint statement on Georgia. An emergency session can be called with support from no less than a fifth of the Riigikogu (21 members). The session has been endorsed by all represented parties, except for Keskerakond. Vilja Savisaar's official statement to the press was, let's wait and see and gather information and not rush into things. Wouldn't do to piss off the Russians.

UPDATE 1: Meanwhile, Ansip is trying to get to Georgia. Might just be PR for now, but if he does show up in Thbilisi, that'll be a great move on his part. Compensating for political ineptitude with personal bravery; could be worse, and he's doing the right thing when it counts. A commenter on Postimees: "When the Russians came here, did anybody help out?" That is exactly why we need to be involved in Georgia.

UPDATE 2: There is a humanitarian aid flight being put together by Estonian Air, the Red Cross and various other local relief agencies. The Estonian Reserve Officers' Association is apparently putting together a team of 90 volunteers that will be on the flight and will distribute the humanitarian aid, as well as help out relief efforts on the ground. The email that I saw specifically mentioned that the group would absolutely not be involved in combat, but otherwise should be prepared for anything, including hostile fire. The email also says that perhaps the presense of Estonian reservist volunteers in Georgia will serve as inspiration to NATO. I haven't really heard of the group before, but it is certainly a good sentiment.

I was away for the weekend, drinking at a friend's place in Narva-Jõesuu. Saw Russia a few hundred yards away.

The war in Georgia hasn't had any conclusive developments. Militarily, the key to the conflict is the Roki tunnel, the only road between Russia and South Ossetia capable of carrying battle vehicles. Without heavy armor, Russia would be unable to do anything substantial in Georgia: dropping bombs on Georgian towns is not the same thing as having troops on the ground.

There has been one interesting moment, which was also the only real help Georgia has had so far from any of its friends and allies. Men-of-war from Russia's Black Sea Fleet were spotted in the ports of Abkhazia and off the Georgian cost, presumably there to enforce a naval blockade of Georgia. However, Russia does not have any serviceable military ports on the Black Sea, and the fleet actually operates out of a naval base in Sevastopol; Crimea. Ukraine said that if a naval blockade is initiated, it will deny the Black Sea Fleet ships a return to harbor within Ukrainian territory. Unlike vague statements of support and threats of diminishing relations from the apparently impotent West, Putin and Medvedev apparently felt like Ukraine bloody well meant it, so the missile cruiser Moscow and its battle group have retreated to Novorossiysk.

Kiev Bravo. For the rest of the West - this is Sudetenland. If you don't protect your friends today, you won't have friends tomorrow. First they came for the Georgians, etc.

So Much for Peacekeepers

Latest news from South Ossetia: Georgian forces retreating from Tskhinvali ahead of a column of Russian tanks moving down from the border. Russian military aircraft is bombing Georgian forces, including the Vaziani military base, where American military instructors are located.

We're still in the middle of the three-hour window that the Georgians said they would allow for the evacuation of civilians, so the reports might not even be true; but if they are, it does seem like Russia will no longer have any way of pretending it is not a clear and present threat to Georgia, as opposed to an international peacekeeping observer.

Could be a failure by the Georgian military. Could be the successful result of a planned provocation designed to expose Russia's true role in the events. In any case, it is certainly a smart move on Georgia's part to avoid engaging the Russian army.

The question is, are these volunteers, or actual Russian regular forces; and if the latter, was their deployment a kneejerk reaction by one of the theater commanders, or did it come direct from Putin/Medvedev?

UPDATE: RIA Novosti, the official Kremlin newswire, reports that the Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed that regular army forces have been sent into South Ossetia, ostensibly to relieve the peacekeeping forces (which was not allowed under the terms of the original ceasefire).

UPDATE 2: Latest news say Russian tanks from the 58th Army are now in direct engagement with retreating Georgian forces.
Saw some info on the orders of battle. The South Osettians themselves have a decent quantity of armor, but apart from that they are very definitely the weakest force in the conflict. The Georgian military is considered to be the best-trained and best-armed in the entire former Soviet Union, with American training, some American armor and aircraft, and a lot of state-of-the-art battlefield equipment from Israel and other suppliers; but they are not very big in numbers, only approximately 30 thousand regulars with 100 thousand trained reservists. Russia's North Caucusus Military District is about a hundred thousand regular troops, with more armor and equipment than the Georgians.

Georgia's First Strike

I had no idea.

Georgia has restarted fighting in South Ossetia, a breakaway republic discreetly backed by Russia. At the time of writing, based on reports in the Russian news media, the rebel capital of Tskhinvali has been captured... and levelled. Georgian forces have announced an imminent three-hour ceasefire to allow refugees to leave the warzone through a safe corridor.

Georgia's casus belli, as far as I can tell, is the bombing of Georgian towns by military aircraft originating in South Ossetia. It and Abkhazia have been a source of provocation for Georgia for months now, and there has been some convincing evidence that the Russian military was actively involved. (A Georgian aerial drone was shot down by a MiG-29, and neither the Abkhaz forces nor the Russian peacekeepers within Abkhazia proper have that type of aircraft.) Georgia itself has been the object of much of Russia's ire in the last couple of years, including an economic blocade and persecution of ethnic Georgians living in Russia.

There has been a scarily plausible opinion going around that as the Beijing Olympics kick off and the world's attention is elsewhere, Russia would make a move. Georgia was visibly spooked by the lack of support from the West, including Germany's block of NATO membership for the country.

It seems that Georgia has considered a military aggression on the part of Russia and/or its rebel allies inevitable, and has decided to make the first move.